# [isabelle] On random variables, dependencies and their expectations

``` Hi,

I have been trying to deal with random variables in Isabelle/HOL for some
time and I still can't find out how to deal with them exactly. I found in
"HOL/Probability/Probability_Mass_Function.thy" on how to define an " 'a
pmf " value briefly. For example, I could use map_pmf to change to
different space:

context
fixes ε :: real
begin

definition w_n :: "nat pmf" where
"w_n = map_pmf (λb. (if b then 1 else 0)) (bernoulli_pmf ((1-ε)/2))"

(*this is to change from {True, False} to {1, 0}*)

definition W_n :: "int pmf" where
"W_n = map_pmf (λb. (-1) ^ (if b then 0 else 1)) (bernoulli_pmf ((1-ε)/2))"
(*this is to change from {True, False} to {1, -1}*)

or use lift_definition:

lift_definition w_list_pmf :: "nat ⇒ bool list pmf" is
"λn (l::bool list).
if size l = n then (((1-ε)/2)^(count (mset l) True))*((1+ε/2)^(count
(mset l) False)) else 0"
(*this is to have a bool list random variable of fixed length and all
members are independent Bernoulli random variables with p = (1-ε)/2*)

But when it becomes more complicated and the random variables are dependent
I have no idea how to phrase it. For example, Let us say I have a sequence
of random variables Φ_i = f (w_1w_2...w_i) (all w_i are independent
Bernoulli random variables),
and then construct Δ_i = Φ_i - Φ_(i-1). The complication, in this case, is
Φ_i =  f (w_1w_2...w_i) and Φ_(i-1) f (w_1w_2...w_(i-1)) use the same w_t
sequence which are w_1,w_2,...,w_(i-1), but the first Φ also uses w_i for
the last element in the list. So, I tried,

lift_definition w_list_pmf :: "nat ⇒ bool list pmf" is
"λn (l::bool list).
if size l = n then (((1-ε)/2)^(count (mset l) True))*((1+ε/2)^(count
(mset l) False)) else 0"
sorry

definition Φ_n :: "nat ⇒ real pmf" where
"Φ_n n = map_pmf (λl. f l) (w_list_pmf n)"
(*with f being any function in "bool list => real" and "n" is the lenth of
the input list*)

definition Δ_n :: "nat ⇒ real pmf" where
"Δ_n n = map_pmf
(λp. fst p - snd p) (pair_pmf (Φ_n n) (Φ_n (n -1)))",

But I guess this makes  (Φ_n n)  and  (Φ_n(n-1)) completely independent
which is not what I want
since they use common random variables in their generating process:
w_1,w_2,...,w_(i-1). So I realised that these constants of " 'a pmf" type
are not supposed to be used as random variables but distribution (please
correct me on this).

Also, I would like to calculate these random variables' expectation, for
which I tried

lemma "n > 0 ⟶
prob_space.expectation (Δ_n n) (id) < -ε"
sorry

,and felt really doubtful of the existence of the function "id" since if  "Δ_n
n" could be used as a random variable, it wouldn't need any function to be
involved in calculating the expectation.
Could I ask whether there are any better ways or repositories I should
check to sort out this random variables issue and their expectations?

Thanks,
Kawin

```

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